May Briefing    2008                               HighwayRadio NV CA AZ logo

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        TRAFFIC COUNT DOWN IN APRIL DUE TO MARCH EASTER HOLIDAY   

      AMERICANS STILL "ON THE ROAD"   

    CALIFORNIA INDIAN CASINOS TARGET VEGAS CUSTOMERS

  TRAFFIC REPORT - APRIL 2008

  I-15 at California/Nevada Stateline (Primm, Nevada)  

 Making a legitimate comparison of traffic counts on I-15 in April of 2008 vs. 2007 is difficult because of several factors. First, the Easter holiday in 2008 fell in March vs. April in 2007.  This effected not only the Easter weekend, but also the spring breaks of the Southern California schools which extend over a two week period.  The shift in the holiday pushed March 2008 traffic 2% ahead of March 2007.  Second, the Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT) magnetic counters at State Line/Primm were inoperable for a week over the entire Easter holiday in 2007.  The third factor was that the NDOT counters on I-15 were out for an entire day, Sunday, April 6, 2008, and Sundays are the heaviest traffic days along I-15.  All of this accounts for the April 2008 showing Monthly Average Daily Traffic down 7.7%, Weekday Traffic down 10.1%, and Weekend Traffic down 7%.  An analysis of northbound traffic on the three non-holiday weekends that were not impacted by a holiday or equipment failures showed northbound traffic on Friday and Saturday (the 11th and 12th) down 2%; the 18th and 19th up 10% and the 25th and 26th down 6%.  Total traffic on these three holidays combined was up 1.3%.   In spite of these anomalies in traffic, perhaps the most accurate figure comes from the year-to-date figures on I-15 which shows total traffic in both directions down just 3%.  There is another mitigating factor on this decline; that is the tendency for Americans still to travel, but to restrict their trips to within 300 miles of their homes.  (See report on Memorial Weekend travel below.)   There is some indication of this trend if you look at the figures from I-15 at Mesquite, Nevada.  The volume, comparison for April shows the decline at Mesquite was consistently 2% higher on the monthly average and weekend than at I-15 at State Line (-9.9% at Mesquite vs. -7.7% at Primm).  This is an indication that the drop in traffic is in long distance travelers, and not necessarily those with Las Vegas as their destination.  

  Laughlin, Nevada (SR163, Davis Dam Road)   The shift in the Easter holiday apparently had an even bigger impact on Laughlin.  Traffic in both directions on SR 163 (Davis Dam Road) showed Average Daily Traffic off 9.9%, Weekday down 11.1% and Weekend off 7.8%.  In past years Weekday Traffic has been just about equally as heavy as Weekend, but in the last six months Friday/Sunday traffic is now the heaviest, followed by Saturday, Thursday, Wednesday with Monday/Tuesday tied for the low.  While the YTD traffic on I-15 south of Las Vegas is off 3% and Mesquite down 2.8%, Laughlin, as a single destination, shows traffic on Davis Dam Road down 5.8%.

  U.S. 95 (Searchlight, .5 miles north of SR 164, Nipton Road)  

 Traffic on this highway is down even more than on Davis Dam Road, with the NDOT reporting Average Daily Traffic off 11.7%, Weekday down 11.5% and Weekend down 12.3%. 

  Mesquite, Nevada (200 feet north of the East Mesquite interchange)

  Traffic counts at I-15 at Mesquite are taken beyond both the exits to Mesquite so that there is no measurement of traffic going into Mesquite.  The NDOT report shows Average Daily Traffic down 9.7%, Weekday off 10.3%, and Weekend off 9.2%. 

 

GAMING REVENUE REPORT - MARCH 2007   Downtown Las Vegas was the only area in Clark County showing an increase in gaming win in March, with percentage of statewide gaming win (share) up to 5.4% from 5.3%, and win in the trailing twelve months is still positive, with an increase of 1.76%.  The Strip showed the third consecutive decline in win, off 5%, and share declined to 4.98% from 5.6% last year, but the Strip still holds onto an increase in win in the trailing twelve months with an increase of 1.31%.  Laughlin had a serious drop in casino win, off 10%, and share down to 5.4% from 5.9% last year.  The casinos on the river now show a negative 1.34% in win in the trailing twelve months.  There was 3% decline in win for all of Clark County, with share dropping to 83.9% from 84.4% last year, but holding onto a 1.3% increase in win in the trailing twelve months.  Statewide win was off 2% and win in the trailing twelve months off 5%.    In the report from the Gaming Control Board it appears that table games are taking the biggest hit.  Statewide, table games are off 9.45% but slots are up 2.3%.  In Clark County table games are down 10.8% with slot machines up 2.7%.  The same pattern holds true with the Strip reporting a 10.9% drop in table games, but slots up slightly at 0.2%.  Players are probably realizing the odds are a little more favorable on the slots.  For example, the win percentage (casino hold) on table games in March was 12.4% and 6.3% for slot machines, indicating that the odds are slightly more favorable for the player with the slots. 

  McCARRAN AIRPORT REPORT- APRIL 2008   At time of publication passenger arrival and departure counts at McCarran International for the month of April were not available.

  AMERICA IS STILL "ON THE ROAD AGAIN"   About 31.7 million American plan to travel by car over the Memorial Day Weekend, down just 1% from the 32 million a year earlier, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), based on a survey conducted by the Travel Industry Association of America for the AAA.  The figures are based on an on-line survey of 2,000 adults. The record high gasoline prices and shaky economy do not seem to impact the number of Americans who will take a road trip for the Memorial Day weekend.  Based on surveys over the last few years, starting with the 9/11 decline in travel, people shorten their trips or cut back on other expenses such as shopping to make the difference in cost.  "The cost of gas is one of those things they can't control so they cut back on other things", according to AAA spokesman, Mike Pena.   Even RV owners still intend to travel and continue to use their vehicles.  Seventy-six percent said they still plan to travel via RV this spring and summer but will probably take shorter trips.  This based on a recent survey by the Recreational Vehicle Association.

  NO DECLINE IN LAS VEGAS VISITORS While there's been a decline in both auto traffic on I-15 and air traffic into McCarran, the LVCVA is still reporting visitor volume up 0.4% year-to-date through March of 2008. This might be explained by our recent research that shows there are more people/per/car (3.2 now vs. 2.6 prior to 2006.) It is probably not the whole explanation, but car-pooling for short trips is happening.

  TRY THESE COMPARISONS If you think gasoline is expensive try some of these comparisons:  Lipton Iced Tea: $9.52 a gallon.  Or the real kicker:  Evian Water $21.19 per gallon.  Perhaps that's where the name came from: Evian spelled backwards is Naïve.  

    

Mobile Trak Radio Listner Monitors

 BAKER Weekday

   (SHARE %)

Highway Radio       24%
Highway Country 17%
The DRIVE 12%
 
93.1 KPLV             5.4%
97.1 KXPT 5.2%
107.5 KXTE 2.4%
92.3 KOMP 2.5%

BAKER Weekend

Highway Radio    26.5%
Highway Country 18.31%
The DRIVE 11%

93.1 KPLV           5.7%
97.1 KXPT 4.1%
107.5 KXTE 2.2%
92.3 KOMP 3%

YERMO Weekday

Highway Radio 20%
Highway Country 13%
The DRIVE 4%

99.1 KGGI          2.5%
107.5 KXTE 1%
97.1 KXPT .6%
92.3 KOMP 1%

YERMO Weekend

Highway Radio 22%
Highway Country 15%
The DRIVE 3.5%

99.1 KGGI          3.3%
107.5 KXTE 1%
97.1 KXPT .9%
92.3 KOMP .7%
 

highway country Logo 

 

  SATELLITE RADIO REALIZES "IT'S THE TRAFFIC STUPID!"  

 XM Satellite Radio is launching a new national consumer campaign based on a multi-media effort to sell their new XM NAV Traffic, realizing that just music isn't enough.  XM will offer detailed traffic reports in major markets.  The service will only be available if you have a specially equipped satellite radio that will be offered in the 2009 models of Nissan, Infinity and Lexus vehicles.  The service will ONLY be available in thirty major markets and will not cover any of the interstate system outside of a metro area.  In other words, if you're stuck on I-15 you're not going to get a traffic report on your XM radio.   Satellite continues to have other troubles.  The FCC has yet to issue the restrictions they will place if, as authorized by the Department of Justice, the merger between XM and Sirius goes through.  Satellite radio brand interest by non-subscribers is at all-time low while attrition rates (churn).  In 2005 35% of the XM and 10% of the Sirius customers said they did not intend to renew their subscription.  By the first quarter of 2007 that figures was up to 67% and 43% for respectively. Conclusion:  As each satellite radio company signs more subscribers the potential for cumulative churn increase as well.  In other words, the longer consumers experience XM and Sirius the higher the attrition became.  These figures come from Bridge Ratings, Second Quarter Consumer Preview.   The sale of satellite radios is also dropping, with sales down 30% last month compared to last year.  While regular terrestrial radio has a 93.7% market penetration, satellite radio has just 4.8% and only 5.6% adults 18+ in Los Angels has listened to XM or Sirius Radio at all in the past week. 

 

  CLOSER TO HOME BENEFITS AMUSEMENT PARKS   The Walt Disney Company reported revenue at the Disneyland theme park unit increased 11% to $2.7 billion in the quarter ended March 29th.  "Both of the U.S. parks had an extraordinary quarter when considering the economic environment", said Chief Executive Robert Iger.  The Orlando Park showed an increase of 7%.  One of the reasons that Disney is doing so well is due to repricing of their hotel product.  In 1991 55% of the rooms were considered premium price, now 75% of the hotel product is moderately priced or "value" priced.  Iger went on to say, "U.S. residents looking to avoid the high cost of traveling abroad are visiting domestic parks instead". These increases can also be traced to a very aggressive marketing campaign 1st quarter of 2008 targeted at the regional market.  

 

  CALIFORNIA INDIAN CASINOS TARGET LAS VEGAS CUSTOMERS   Realizing that Las Vegas visitors are an ideal target market, the California Indian casinos are using television and radio to lure prospective customers to their venues and away from Las Vegas.  Agua Caliente Casino is offering rooms at $89 per night. They are also running a television campaign with a map showing the road distance from Los Angeles to Las Vegas compared with the road trip from Los Angeles to Palm Springs.    Further evidence of the Indian casinos targeting Las Vegas customers is the $7.5 million that California Indian Casinos poured into radio advertising in Southern California in 2007.  The leading three were Morango Casino at $2.8 million, Barona Valley Ranch $1.5 million and San Manual at $1.1 million.

 

  TRY THESE COMPARISONS If you think gasoline is expensive try some of these comparisons:  Lipton Iced Tea: $9.52 a gallon.  Or the real kicker:  Evian Water $21.19 per gallon.  Perhaps that's where the name came from: Evian spelled backwards is Naïve.  

 
NEVADA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION APRIL 2008 TRAFFIC SUMMARY

 

AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC1

WEEKDAY 2

WEEKEND 3

I-15 NEV/CA STATELINE

(PRIMM, NEVADA)

-7.7%

-10.2%

-7%

 

I-15 MESQUITE

-9.7%

-10.3%

-9.2%

SR 163 LAUGHLIN - Davis Dam Rd.

-9.9%

-11.1%

-7.8%

US 95 AT SEARCHLIGHT

(SR 164)

-11.7%

-11.5%

-12.3%

 

1.   Percentage increase (decrease) in average daily traffic northbound and southbound divided by the total number of days of       the month.

2.   Percentage increase (decrease) in total traffic northbound and southbound Monday through Thursday divided by the   number   of days of the month.

3.   Percentage increase (decrease) in total traffic northbound and southbound for Saturday and Sunday divided by the number      of days of the month